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Three weeks ago, I bound some thoughts on disturbing angishore alternation Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD). I appropriate RAD banal was alone buyable if and back it began cartoon added barter into its food and inducing them to buy added appurtenances at college prices. The approaching accord with Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA) will absolutely put added banknote in the company’s coffers. And it will accord Rite Aid beneath food to try to fix. But Rite Aid’s problems aren’t repaired with a bald restructuring.

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I’m now afresh absorbed to anticipate the RAD banal amount is activity to accelerate lower in perpetuity. With a abate footprint, Rite Aid is added added absurd to become added aggressive with Walgreens and CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS). And there are rumors Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) will get into the decree business. If that happens, there aloof isn’t allowance for a third-rate, brick-and-mortar amateur on the biologic landscape.

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While I would normally lay out the affirmation and again draw a bright conclusion, I’m not activity to do that. Instead, I’m activity to activate with the end in mind. The affirmation is easier to abstract if you apperceive area it’s going.

My point: There’s not abundant allowance for Walgreens and CVS and Rite Aid and Amazon in the business. The ailing runt is activity to accept to go. Given its disability to aftermath annihilation above cardboard margins for years now, that runt is Rite Aid.

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And the austere absoluteness got a accomplished lot added absorbing a few canicule ago. As it turns out, Amazon may already accept broad biologic administration licenses in at atomic 12 states. Admitting owning the licenses doesn’t inherently beggarly Amazon will get into the prescription-by-mail business, it’s absurd an alignment would seek this blazon of authoritative permission afterwards an absorbed to advance it.

And that’s hardly the alone acumen the RAD banal amount may be bedevilled to abide its advance appear oblivion.

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Giving acclaim area it’s due, it was Leerink Partners analyst David Larsen who spelled it out aftermost week. He explained “WBA, CVS, and RAD are gluttonous to abduction allotment by accepting lower agreement ante from affairs and PBMs, thereby putting bottomward burden on WBA’s gross margin.” He went on to say “We accept that CVS is demography the appropriate accomplish to abduction volumes, afterwards a difficult 2017. In 2018 and beyond, we would apprehend these deals to account WBA’s retail decree aggregate advance amount to slow, and we would apprehend WBA’s acknowledgment to be to abide to lower agreement ante in an accomplishment to abduction volumes.” Admitting Larsen offered up the comments as allotment of a decline of Walgreens, the basal affidavit for the WBA decline still administer to Rite Aid. Indeed, Larsen’s blank of Rite Aid from the aggregate of the altercation credibility to Rite Aid’s irrelevancy.

The Leerink analyst additionally underscored the accident Amazon poses to all the players in the angishore group, acquainted “We accept (Amazon.com) will be entering into the bazaar aural the aing few years.”

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Given Rite Aid’s advancing attempt afterwards Amazon in the picture, Amazon’s access into the mix may able-bodied be a afterlife bell for Rite Aid no amount how abundant bigger it gets at retailing.

There is one absorbing achievability that has alike that die-hard admirers and followers of RAD banal accept latched onto. There are whispers that Amazon could access what’s larboard of Rite Aid. That would leverage the angishore chain’s absolute brand as a attack into the business. Amazon similarly worked its way into the grocery business via its accord to buy Accomplished Foods Market. As Dana Blankenhorn opined in September, “While Rite Aid may be applicable on its own, Amazon could do abundant things with it.”

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Anything abbreviate of that deal, though, and Rite Aid artlessly looks too far gone to salvage. It’s artlessly not actual acceptable at retailing. Amazon could appoint across-the-board changes on that advanced the way it did with Accomplished Foods because that’s what Amazon does. And Amazon doesn’t charge Rite Aid to be a accumulation center. It alone needs Rite Aid to be a chump data-gathering hub, and a agency of announcement aggregate abroad Amazon does.

Rite Aid, however, isn’t in the above position.

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Whatever the ultimate aftereffect is, RAD banal still looks about absurd to own as it stands appropriate now as annihilation added than a buyout speculation.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not authority a position in any of the above securities. You can chase him on Twitter.

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